Yamamoto Incorporated - predictions for a dramatic slowing of the US economy have been vindicated after the first print of fourth quarter GDP came in at 0.7%. The figure, which will be revised later on in February, showed that the world’s largest economy is slowing in line with others around the world.

The number confirms the investment boutiques forecasts for the recession in manufacturing to bleed into the service and consumption sectors of the economy.

“This very much validates our view that the US economy will fall into a recession in 2016,” claimed a Yamamoto Incorporated analyst. “Consumer spending over the festive season was dreadful with major retailers like Macy’s, Tiffany & Co. and even the mighty Amazon reporting weaker-than-expected sales during what should be an absolute bonanza for the retail sector,” he added.

The preliminary read means that, for the whole of 2015, the US economy grew by 2.4%, the same as 2014 but Yamamoto Incorporated says the figure could be revised downwards meaning that the final read of 2015 GDP would be lower than last year’s.

The one bright spot on the outlook for the US economy has been the pace of job creation and many commentators are holding the unemployment rate up as being indicative of underlying strength in the economy.

“Even if unemployment wasn’t a lagging indicator, one still has to bear in mind that the jobs being created are part-time, low-paying jobs in retail, healthcare and the services sector. People are taking two or three jobs just to make ends meet and they’re not spending even with the money they’re saving filing their cars with gasoline,” concluded the Yamamoto Incorporated analyst.