Matsuda Global - With forecasts for the next Fed rate hike already pushed back to June this year, many are suggesting that they could be pushed back even further if the first jobs report of 2016 disappoints to the downside.

Strong jobs numbers in 2015 were one of the few bright spots among a slew of economic data that appeared to point to a slowing down in GDP growth in the world’s largest economy.

“Many optimists have pointed to the jobs numbers as a strong measure of the health of the US economy but, as we’ve always maintained, employment is a lagging indicator insofar as it shows where the economy has been, not where it’s going,” said a Matsuda Global analyst.

“We believe that there’ll be a marked decline in jobs created as the year progresses and while that may not necessarily begin with the next payrolls reports, we would certainly anticipate a change by the end of the 2nd quarter of 2016,” she added.

Matsuda Global is highly skeptical of official forecasts for 3 or 4 Federal Reserve rate hikes in 2016. The firm cites steep declines in key economic indicators including retail sales, existing and pending home sales, durable goods and manufacturing data and also points to a raft of layoffs at larger companies like Caterpillar and Macy’s.

“These things don’t turn around of their own accord; they require something fundamental to change and we don’t see what that could be. If the US economy is slowing even with oil prices at close to $30 a barrel, there’s definitely a problem,” said the Matsuda Global analyst.